Ghana Faces Very Strong El Niño Threat as GMet Warns of Extreme Heat, Drought and Possible Flooding

Ghana could experience unusually hot, dry and dusty weather conditions between November 2026 and April 2027 as a very strong El Niño phenomenon develops in the Pacific Ocean, prompting concerns over water security, food production, public health and the country’s preparedness for potential disasters.

The Ghana Meteorological Department (GMet), in a six-page advisory released on October 30, 2026, warned that the developing El Niño is intensifying, citing data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI).

According to the advisory, there is a 96 per cent probability that the phenomenon will reach very strong intensity between November 2026 and January 2027. It is expected to peak within the same period before gradually weakening during the first half of 2027.

The development is expected to influence Ghana’s weather patterns, particularly during the dry season, with hotter temperatures, reduced rainfall and increased dust and harmattan conditions anticipated from late November 2026 through March 2027.

GMet also projects below-normal rainfall across most parts of Ghana between October and December 2026. However, the reduced rainfall outlook does not eliminate the possibility of sudden heavy downpours and localised flooding, particularly in southern Ghana and parts of the inland Greater Accra, Central, Volta, Eastern, Bono, Savannah, North East and Upper West regions.

The advisory further identifies February to April 2027 as the period when heat stress could become particularly severe, especially in northern Ghana.

Forecast temperatures include 38°C in Bolgatanga, 36°C in Tamale and 34°C in Kumasi, raising concerns about the impact of prolonged heat on vulnerable populations, agricultural activities and livestock.

Other anticipated risks include bushfires, water shortages, pressure on crops and livestock, increased dust and harmattan conditions, as well as a heightened seasonal risk of meningitis in northern Ghana.

Beyond the immediate dry-season concerns, the outlook for Ghana’s 2027 rainy season remains uncertain.

The advisory indicates that rainfall could arrive late or remain weak if El Niño weakens slowly. However, a possible transition to La Niña conditions around the middle of 2027 could trigger heavier rainfall, increasing the risk of flooding and potential spillage from the Volta Lake.

The current situation has been compared with previous strong El Niño episodes recorded in 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16, highlighting the need for early preparation and effective disaster management.

Reacting to the warning, Emmanuel Duah, Executive Director of Radiant Media and Intelligence Hub, has called for urgent national action, warning that Ghana has a limited window to prepare for both the expected dry conditions and the possible return of heavy rainfall.

In a statement titled How Prepared Will We Be?, Mr Duah argued that the country must use the period before the rains return to address weaknesses in water management, sanitation, agriculture, healthcare and disaster preparedness.

He outlined seven proposed measures divided into preparations for the hot, dry and dusty season and measures to address potential flooding.

 Activate a National El Niño Task Force

Mr Duah called for the immediate activation of a National El Niño Task Force, as recommended by GMet.

He proposed that the team should include representatives from GMet, the National Disaster Management Organisation (NADMO), Volta River Authority (VRA), Ghana Water Limited, the Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Ghana Health Service and the Energy Commission.

The task force, he said, should monitor developments weekly, particularly Akosombo Dam water levels and national food buffer stocks, to ensure that potential challenges are identified early.

 Strengthen Water Security

He urged Ghana Water Limited to publish a water rationing plan ahead of the anticipated dry conditions rather than wait until shortages become severe.

He also proposed the rehabilitation of boreholes in northern Ghana to improve access to water for communities that could be affected by prolonged dry weather.

Additionally, he called on the VRA to carefully manage water retention at the Akosombo and Kpong dams to reduce the possibility of emergency spillage when rainfall patterns change.

 Introduce Public Health Protection Measures

On health, Mr Duah urged the Ghana Health Service to pre-position meningitis vaccines in the Upper East, Upper West, North East and Savannah regions in anticipation of increased seasonal risks.

He also called on Metropolitan, Municipal and District Assemblies (MMDAs) to issue heat advisories to residents, recommending that people avoid strenuous outdoor activities between 12 noon and 3 p.m.

Particular attention, he said, should be given to protecting schoolchildren, market women and other people whose daily activities expose them to prolonged heat.

 Protect Food Production and Livestock

The Executive Director also called on the Ministry of Food and Agriculture to provide farmers with timely guidance on planting schedules, including advising them to delay planting until GMet provides clearer information on the 2027 rainfall outlook.

He further recommended the distribution of drought-tolerant seeds and livestock feed support, particularly to farmers in northern Ghana, where prolonged dry conditions could affect agricultural production.

Measures Needed Before the Rains Return

Mr Duah stressed that preparations should not end with the management of the dry season, warning that the return of rainfall could bring another round of flooding if the necessary preventive measures are not implemented.

 Desilt Drains and Enforce Building Regulations

He called on MMDAs in Accra, Kumasi, Tamale and Sekondi to begin desilting major drainage systems, including the Odaw and Korle drains, as well as other primary drains, before March 2027.

He also urged authorities to enforce existing restrictions against building on waterways immediately instead of waiting until flooding occurs before taking action.

 Strengthen NADMO and VRA Early Warning Systems

The statement further called on NADMO to pre-position relief supplies, boats and life jackets in flood-prone areas across the Volta, Greater Accra, Central and Eastern regions.

Mr Duah also urged the VRA to provide at least 72 hours’ warning before any planned spillage from the Volta Lake, drawing lessons from the 2023 spillage and its impact on affected communities.

 Improve Public Communication and Early Warnings

As part of efforts to ensure that communities understand the potential risks, he proposed translating GMet’s advisory into 12 local languages and distributing the information through radio stations across the country.

He also called on telecommunications companies to use SMS alerts to notify residents about extreme heat conditions and sudden heavy rainfall, particularly in vulnerable communities.

In its concluding assessment, Radiant Media and Intelligence Hub maintained that although El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, the disasters associated with its effects can be reduced through proper planning and effective governance.

Mr Duah argued that GMet had fulfilled an important responsibility by issuing an early warning, but the real test would be whether government institutions, particularly District Assemblies, translate the forecasts into practical preventive measures.

He warned that Ghana risks repeating a cycle of experiencing extreme heat and dry conditions in the early part of the year, followed by devastating floods when the rains return.

“We cannot afford to burn in February and drown in June of the same year,” the statement cautioned, urging authorities to use the four-month preparation window to strengthen the country’s resilience against the anticipated weather conditions.

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